Subway freight transportation has problems such as limited transportation attributes, uncertain public recognition, and unclear freight demand. The characteristics of subway freight transportation are summarized and the selection preferences of shippers are investigated. An selection model integrating latent variables and ordered Logit is established and compared with traditional Logit models. The attractiveness of subway freight to shippers of high- and low-value-added goods is evaluated, predicting the probability of shippers choosing subway freight as the share rate of subway freight, and a marginal probability analysis is conducted. The results show that: Compared with the traditional model, the selection model established in this paper has better fitting degree and explanatory power. The probability of the two types of cargo owners choosing to switch to subway freight is higher than the probability of choosing not to transfer. The number of relocations and transportation costs significantly impact high- and low-value freight owners, respectively. Not reloading can increase the probability of high-value-added cargo owners turning to subway freight by 53.01%, and each unit of cost reduction can increase the probability of low-value-added cargo owners turning to subway freight by 23.70%.
Zhang Han
,
Lü Yongbo
,
Ren Yuan
,
Guo Jianwei
. Prediction Research of Subway Freight Sharing Rate Based on Latent Variables and Ordered Logit[J]. Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering, 2025
, 21(2)
: 384
-392
.
DOI: 10.20174/j.JUSE.2025.02.03
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