为了提升含水结构影响下的施工安全风险防控能力,论文构建了隧道突涌水灾害风险量化评估方法。针对含水结构空间定位与围岩扰动耦合作用引发的突涌水风险问题,提出融合地质探测与力学分析的综合评价方法,包含3个核心环节:首先采用瞬变电磁法超前探水技术精准识别含水结构三维空间分布;其次基于图解法将围岩扰动划分为破坏区Df、应力扰动弹性区De和天然应力区,建立含水结构与扰动分区的空间叠加风险评估模型;最后针对中高风险工况,推导出力平衡约束的含水结构危险性系数Kc计算公式,进行风险等级动态修正。结果表明:某隧道含水结构距洞壁9.00 m时,结合Df=2.40 m和De=12.65 m的扰动界限,初步评定为中风险;经计算Kc=0.87,小于1.00,复核后升级为高风险,与实际突涌水事故吻合。通过研究构建了“初步判定—定量复核”双层级风险评估架构,实现风险等级从定性到定量的跨越;建立的扰动分区界限值可为超前地质探测最小安全距离提供科学依据。研究成果形成了隧道突涌水风险“探测—分析—评价—防控”的全过程技术体系,提升了评价精度,可为复杂地质条件下隧道安全施工提供解决方案。
A quantitative risk assessment method for tunnel water inrush disasters is developed to enhance safety risk prevention capabilities under the influence of water-bearing structures. Addressing the water inrush risks induced by the coupling effects of water-bearing structure spatial positioning and surrounding rock disturbance, an integrated evaluation methodology combining geological detection and mechanical analysis is proposed. The methodology comprises three core components: First, the transient electromagnetic method is employed for advanced water detection to accurately identify the three-dimensional spatial distribution of water-bearing structures. Second, graphical analysis is applied to partition the surrounding rock disturbance into failure zone Df, stress-disturbed elastic zone De, and natural stress zone, establishing a spatial superposition risk assessment model between water-bearing structures and disturbance zones. Finally, for medium or high-risk scenarios, a danger coefficient Kc calculation formula constrained by force equilibrium is derived to dynamically adjust risk levels. Engineering validation demonstrates: When a water-bearing structure in a tunnel case was 9.00 m from the tunnel wall, combined with disturbance boundary values of Df=2.40 m and De=12.65 m, the initial risk assessment identified medium risk. After recalculating Kc=0.87, which is less than 1.00, the risk level was upgraded to high, consistent with subsequent actual water inrush incidents. Two key achievements are summarized as follows: a dual-level risk assessment framework of “preliminary determination-quantitative recheck” is established, achieving the transition from qualitative to quantitative risk grading, and the defined boundary values of the disturbance zone can provide a scientific basis for the minimum safe distance in advanced geological detection. The research outcomes form a complete technical system covering the entire process of “detection-analysis-evaluation-prevention” for tunnel water inrush risks, substantially improving assessment accuracy and offering innovative solutions for safe tunnel construction in complex geological conditions.
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