为加强城市轨道交通建设规划约束,防范政府债务风险,需要对规划建设运营的城市轨道交通运力负荷开展评估。规划运力负荷评估是多级别、多指标模糊评价问题。根据交通运输部最新发布的《城市轨道交通运力负荷评估规范》,从站台负荷度、楼扶梯度负荷度、换乘通道负荷度、安检设备负荷度、闸机负荷度5个方面构建了城轨交通车站运力负荷评价指标体系。首次提出采用改进熵权法确定指标权重,采用可变模糊集理论确定指标隶属度,采用耦合度量评价模型确定运力负荷度向量的评估策略,并以南京地铁规划S3东延线东郊小镇站为例进行说明。耦合度量评估考虑相关指标并非相互独立,单一评价指标可能影响其他因素进而波及最终的运力负荷评估结果。理论分析和实例计算表明,该方法在城轨规划运力负荷评估中有很好的适用性。
It is necessary to evaluate the transport-capacity load of urban-rail-transit projects under planning, construction and operation, so as to strengthen planning construction and guard against government-debt risks. The evaluation on planned transportation capacity load is a multi-level, multi-index fuzzy evaluation problem. According to the latest "Specification of Transport Load Assessment for Urban Rail Transit" released by the Ministry of Transport, an evaluation index system for urban rail transit station capacity load has been constructed from five aspects: platform load degree, building support gradient load degree, transfer channel load degree, security inspection equipment load degree, and gate load degree. An improved entropy weight method is proposed for the first time to determine indicator weights, variable fuzzy set theory is used to determine indicator membership degrees, and a coupled metric evaluation model is used to determine the vector of transportation load degree. Taking Dongjiaoxiaozhen Station on the S3 East Extension Line of Nanjing Metro as an example for illustration. The coupling measurement evaluation considers that the relevant indicators are not independent of each other, and a single evaluation indicator may affect other factors and ultimately affect the results of the capacity load assessment. Theoretical analysis and practical calculations show that this method has good applicability in the assessment of urban rail transit planning capacity load.
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