随着我国高寒高海拔地区基础设施建设规模不断扩大,隧道衬砌结构开裂现象愈加频繁。由于衬砌开裂影响因素众多、各指标敏感性模糊不清,导致常规风险预测方法存在不确定性。为了较为准确评判隧道施工时混凝土衬砌结构的安全性,本文综合考虑了隧道围岩特性、环境因素、二衬混凝土特性、荷载作用、人为因素等5个方面影响因素,构建了隧道衬砌开裂的风险评估指标体系。搜集国内外典型工况数据,基于德尔菲法-熵权法主客观相结合组合赋权指标层,结合云模型相关理论构建组合赋权-正态云模型,利用该模型对某隧道混凝土衬砌结构进行风险评估,结果表明:开裂风险呈Ⅳ级,施工过程中需加强衬砌结构承载能力。

With the continuous expansion of infrastructure construction in high-altitude and high-altitude areas of China, cracking of tunnel lining structures has become increasingly frequent. Due to the numerous factors affecting lining cracking and the unclear sensitivity of various indicators, there is uncertainty in conventional risk prediction methods. In order to accurately evaluate the safety of concrete lining structures during tunnel construction, this article comprehensively considers five influencing factors, including tunnel surrounding rock characteristics, environmental factors, secondary lining concrete characteristics, load effects, and human factors, and constructs a risk assessment index system for tunnel lining cracking. Collecting typical working condition data at home and abroad, based on the Delphi entropy weighting method combined with subjective and objective weighting index layers, and combining cloud model related theories to construct a combined weighting normal cloud model, a risk assessment of a concrete lining structure in a tunnel was conducted using this model. The results showed that the risk of cracking was level IV, and the bearing capacity of the lining structure needs to be strengthened during the construction process.