防灾与环境

基于综合赋权-集对分析的岩爆烈度等级预测

  • 殷雄 ,
  • 郭奇峰 ,
  • 方明华 ,
  • 张英 ,
  • 颜景暄
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  • 1.北京科技大学 土木与资源工程学院,北京 100083;
    2.北京科技大学 金属矿山高效开采与安全教育部重点实验室,北京 100083
殷雄(1999—),男,云南昭通人,硕士生,主要从事岩石力学领域的科研工作。E-mail:1010903408@qq.com
郭奇峰(1985—),男,河南焦作人,博士,副教授,主要从事矿山岩石力学等领域的教学与研究工作。E-mail:guoqifeng@ustb.edu.cn

收稿日期: 2024-11-09

  网络出版日期: 2025-10-17

基金资助

国家重点研发计划课题(2021YFC3001301)

Prediction of Rockburst Intensity Level Based on Comprehensive Weighting-Set Pair Analysis

  • Yin Xiong ,
  • Guo Qifeng ,
  • Fang Minghua ,
  • Zhang Ying ,
  • Yan Jingxuan
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  • 1. School of Civil and Resource Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, P.R. China;
    2. Key Laboratory of High Efficient Mining and Safety of Metal Mines (Ministry of Education), University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, P.R. China

Received date: 2024-11-09

  Online published: 2025-10-17

摘要

针对综合赋权法中不同赋权方法的偏好度系数不合理以及最大隶属度原则容易出现误判的问题,综合选取岩石脆性系数σc/σt、岩体应力特性系数σθt、弹性能指数Wet和岩体完整性系数Kv作为预测指标,引入距离函数确定改进层次分析法和变异系数法的偏好度系数,并结合指标集对联系度函数得到综合联系度,最终采用最大隶属度原则和置信度准则进行岩爆烈度等级的综合评判,建立改进综合赋权-集对分析的岩爆烈度等级预测模型。通过国内外17组典型岩爆案例和实际工程案例应用效果验证,表明本文提出的模型准确率高,实际应用效果好,具有一定的工程指导意义。

本文引用格式

殷雄 , 郭奇峰 , 方明华 , 张英 , 颜景暄 . 基于综合赋权-集对分析的岩爆烈度等级预测[J]. 地下空间与工程学报, 2025 , 21(5) : 1784 -1792 . DOI: 10.20174/j.JUSE.2025.05.34

Abstract

In response to the unreasonable preference coefficients of different weighting methods in the comprehensive weighting method and the problem of misjudgment in the maximum membership criterion, the rock brittleness coefficient σc/σt, rock mass stress characteristic coefficient σθt, elastic energy index Wet, and rock integrity coefficient Kv are comprehensively selected as prediction indicators. By introducing a distance function to determine the preference coefficient of the improved Analytic Hierarchy Process and the Coefficient of Variation method, and combining the indicator set to obtain the comprehensive connectivity function. Finally, the maximum membership principle and confidence criterion are used for the comprehensive evaluation of rockburst intensity levels, and an improved rockburst intensity level prediction model based on comprehensive weighting and set pair analysis is established. Through the verification of 17 typical rockburst cases at home and abroad and actual engineering cases, it is shown that the proposed model has high accuracy and good practical application effects, which has certain engineering guidance significance.

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