在地铁运输系统供需失衡场景下,运力失效影响传播与边界的快速辨识及预测是大城市地铁多线多站协同应急调度指挥的基础信息支撑。基于智慧轨道高质量发展目标,设计了图特征辨识-失效空间蔓延搜索-协同控制的整体技术思路,特别是根据轴域型复杂地铁网络运力失效影响非线性扩散与有向蔓延交错进行、快慢结合的特殊性,分析了轴域型地铁网络在运力失效场景下呈现的点-线-团-面的传播特点,对空间形态、结构及环境差异下突发事件影响模式、演化特点和规模分布进行系统归纳,并在精确解析路网图特征数量基础上,利用图论理论建立影响的扩散边界、非常规流量分布与形态计算模型。研究成果可为轨道网应急指挥系统建设提供理论支撑。
In the scenario of supply-demand imbalance in the subway transportation system, rapid identification and prediction of transportation capacity failure impact propagation and boundaries is the basic information support for coordinated emergency dispatch and command of multi line and multi station subways in large cities. The failure propagation shows the particularity of rapid nonlinear diffusion and directed spread. Aim to meet the high-quality development objectives of smart track, the overall technical route include image feature identification, failure space spread search and information collaborative control. Based on the identification of the spatial structure characteristics that include station, line and network, this paper analyze the characteristics of impact propagation and evolution under the scenario of transport capacity failure, summarizes the impact mode, evolution characteristics and scale distribution of emergencies under the differences of spatial form, structure and environment systematically. Secondly, this paper establish the diffusion boundary, unconventional flow distribution and form calculation model, provides methodology for the construction of rail network emergency response system.
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