防灾与环境

基于故障树和贝叶斯网络的管廊运维风险评估

  • 陈雍君 ,
  • 李晓健 ,
  • 吴光晔 ,
  • 田诗雨
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  • 北京建筑大学 城市经济与管理学院,北京 102616
陈雍君(1973—),男,湖南邵阳人,博士,副教授,主要从事管廊等地下空间领域的风险分析研究。E-mail:cyj@bucea.edu.cn
李晓健(2000—),男,河北邯郸人,硕士,主要从事风险分析研究。E-mail:2764247885@qq.com

收稿日期: 2023-09-26

  网络出版日期: 2024-07-15

基金资助

国家自然科学基金(7194101601)

Operation and Maintenance Risk Assessment of Underground Utility Tunnels Based on FTA and Fuzzy BN

  • Chen Yongjun ,
  • Li Xiaojian ,
  • Wu Guangye ,
  • Tian Shiyu
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  • School of Urban Economics and Management, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 102616, P. R. China

Received date: 2023-09-26

  Online published: 2024-07-15

摘要

城市地下综合管廊在运维过程中事故时有发生,为了量化管廊运维风险并分析关键风险因素,提出一种基于故障树和模糊贝叶斯网络的城市地下综合管廊运维风险评估方法。在综合考虑管廊风险因素的基础上构建故障树模型,将其映射为贝叶斯网络。基于ALARP准则划分风险因素状态等级,根据模糊数和模糊子集计算底事件的发生概率,利用最大似然估计法求解中间事件的条件概率,构建管廊运维风险贝叶斯网络模型,精准评估城市地下综合管廊运维风险。结果表明:所评估的管廊运维过程风险等级为High的概率为28%,接近30%的风险阈值,因此需要及时对管廊风险进行管控。该方法能够科学、合理地评价风险水平并确定关键因素,可为管廊运维安全保障和管理提供参考。

本文引用格式

陈雍君 , 李晓健 , 吴光晔 , 田诗雨 . 基于故障树和贝叶斯网络的管廊运维风险评估[J]. 地下空间与工程学报, 2024 , 20(3) : 1016 -1025 . DOI: 10.20174/j.JUSE.2024.03.31

Abstract

Accidents frequently occur in the operation and maintenance of urban underground utility tunnels. To quantify the operation and maintenance risks of utility tunnels and analyze the key risk factors, a risk assessment method for the operation and maintenance of urban underground utility tunnels based on fault tree and fuzzy Bayesian network was proposed. A fault tree was constructed based on comprehensive consideration of the risk factors of tunnel, and it was mapped to a Bayesian network. Then, the risk factor status was classified based on ALARP criteria, fuzzy number and fuzzy subset were used to calculate the probability of occurrence of bottom events, Maximum Likelihood Estimation was used to solve the conditional probability of intermediate events, and a Bayesian network model was constructed for operation and maintenance risk of utility tunnels to assess the operation and maintenance risk of urban underground utility tunnels accurately. The results show that the probability for the assessed risk level of utility tunnels’ operation and maintenance process is High is 28%, which was close to the risk threshold of 30%. Therefore, it is necessary to control the risks of the utility tunnels timely. This method can scientifically and reasonably evaluate the risk level and determine the key factors, and can be used as a decision-making tool for the safety assurance and management of the utility tunnels’ operation and maintenance.

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